The El Niño Series: The Situation in Zimbabwe
- 7 days ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 5 days ago
El Niño is making headlines around the world, but what does it actually mean for communities already living with the effects of the climate crisis? In this series, we explore what El Niño is, why it matters, how All We Can's partners are responding, and what it means for people of faith committed to climate justice.
In this third blog of the series on the phenomenon, Backson Muchini, the All We Can Country Representative for Zimbabwe, tells us about how recent, devastating weather conditions brought on by El Niño mean that the country is preparing for this year's expected Super El Niño.
If you've been moved or inspired by this series so far, please consider making a donation to the Emergency Relief Fund so All We Can can provide extra funding to partners to specifically help with climate preparedness.
The Situation in Zimbabwe
by Backson Muchini
Zimbabwe stands at a critical juncture. While recent agricultural seasons have delivered some recovery from the devastating 2023/24 El Niño drought, emerging climate forecasts suggest that another drought-prone season could be developing for 2026/27. The warning signs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, and the country cannot afford to be caught off-guard again.
"The forecast was made early in the year. It will be folly to look for the cave after it has rained, now is the time to act proactively to drastically reduce the adverse effects on communities of the forecasted super El Niño."
Meteorological assessments indicate a high probability of El Niño conditions developing during the upcoming rainy season. According to reports citing Zimbabwe's Meteorological Services Department, there is an estimated 88% to 94% chance of a super El Niño formation, a weather phenomenon historically associated with below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and elevated temperatures across the country, Southern Africa, and many other countries.
For Zimbabwe, the implications are profound. Agriculture remains a cornerstone of the economy and a primary source of livelihood for millions of rural households. Most smallholder farmers rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture, making them particularly vulnerable to erratic rainfall patterns. A poor rainy season can quickly translate into crop failures, livestock losses, reduced incomes, and increased food insecurity.
"Now is the time to share information about the forecast and what actions communities and households should take to prepare for a much drier season."
The lessons from the 2023/24 drought remain fresh. That season was characterised by delayed rains, prolonged dry spells, and below-average precipitation across much of the country. The consequences were severe: widespread crop failures, significant livestock losses, depleted water sources, and rising hunger levels. Zimbabwe ultimately declared a national disaster as millions faced food insecurity.
The economic cost was equally devastating. According to a joint assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Zimbabwean authorities, damages and losses to the agricultural sector exceeded US$363 million, with crop production bearing the largest share of the impact.
Hence, against this backdrop, the prospect of another drought demands urgent action. The Zimbabwe Government has already begun implementing preparedness measures, including strengthening strategic grain reserves, expanding irrigation infrastructure, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and encouraging the cultivation of drought-tolerant crops such as sorghum and millet. These interventions are important, but their effectiveness will depend on rapid implementation and widespread adoption.
Civil society organisations are better placed to immediately mobilise for resources at the same time whilst sharing information with communities on what anticipatory action is necessary before the drought is upon them. Thus, now is time to share information about the forecast and what actions communities and households should take to prepare for a much drier season.
Communities and households also have a critical role to play. It is time for rural communities and households to begin implementing preparedness measures, including using water more diligently, putting in place rainwater harvesting as well as water conservation measures (gabions, swales, contour bunds, check dams, recharge pits and trenches), selling-off their aged livestock, adopting heavy mulching for their crop fields, planting early maturing crop varieties, using resilient landraces (drought-tolerant, pest-tolerant crops), replacing flood irrigation and sprinklers with drip pipes, as well as ensuring there are enough sheds, water, and feeds for bees and other livestock.
Households reliant on agriculture should prioritise water conservation, invest in water harvesting systems, and engage closely with agricultural extension officers for timely guidance. Livestock owners need to secure feed reserves (crop store-over, hay bales, grain feeds) and protect grazing resources before conditions deteriorate. Early preparation often determines whether households survive a severe drought with resilience or fall into an emergency situation.
Climate change has amplified challenges faced by Zimbabweans. Experts warn that Southern Africa is likely to become hotter and drier over the coming decades, increasing the frequency and intensity of drought events. This means that drought preparedness can no longer be viewed as an emergency response measure alone. It must become a permanent component of national development planning, agricultural policy, and community resilience strategies.
"Recent improvements in grain production and efforts to build strategic reserves provide a stronger foundation than existed during previous drought cycles. However, resilience is not built during a crisis; it is built before one arrives."
Zimbabwe has demonstrated its capacity to recover from climatic shocks. Recent improvements in grain production and efforts to build strategic reserves provide a stronger foundation than existed during previous drought cycles. However, resilience is not built during a crisis; it is built before one arrives, as our wise ancestors used to counsel, ‘look for the cave before it rains’.
The super El Niño warning signals are already flashing. Whether the upcoming season develops into a full-scale drought or not, Zimbabwe's best course of action is clear: prepare now, conserve resources, widely adopt agroecology and strengthen climate-resilient agriculture, and protect the most vulnerable communities. In the face of an uncertain climate future, preparedness is no longer optional, it is an individual, community as well as national necessity.
The climate crisis means that our partners need to help their communities face new challenges. If you would like to support this area of our work, and would like to see our partners better equipped for working in sustainable disaster resilience, please consider donating to our Emergency Relief Fund.
